Confidence Tricks

Fears of global recession caused stock markets in Europe and Asia to tumble today, thus increasing the chances of global recession. The Shanghai index fell seven per cent due to heavy snow, a slightly better performance than would be expected from a British railway company but still discouraging. "Reuters reported that shares in miners (sic) fell after the snow forced some factories to suspend production, leading to less demand for metal", which evidently explains the general panic. Apparently it did not occur to anyone to check whether the factories might be working again once the snow has been cleared. Manus Cranny of Cantor Index, who despite his name is apparently an individual human being and not a merchant bank, a handy hole in the wall or an alien, said that today "is all about confidence", and warned that "banks, miners and housebuilders could experience a tough time today". It seems Manus Cranny likes to keep his hand in as an astrologer. The chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan said that five out of eleven indicators had deteriorated, and if a sixth did so it would indicate a recession. Thus did the chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan fuel the fears of recession which led the indicators to deteriorate. It is thanks to the hard work and discretion of people like Manus Cranny of Cantor Index and the chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan that we have avoided the boom-bust cycle of the bad old days.